Signs Of Pork Shortage Now Showing Up In Major Chinese Cities

By Lin Tan
DTN China Correspondent

Beijing, China (DTN) – The impact of China’s African swine fever outbreak has grown, as the disease arrived in one of the country’s largest production areas while pork stockpiles are rapidly falling as well.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MOA) announced on May 28 that an African swine fever (ASF) case was found in Bobai County in South China’s Guangxi Province. It was just one hog infected within a small farm, but the location created immediate concerns for the industry. Another outbreak was reported May 25 on a farm of 104 hogs in Yunnan Province, another southern China province.
Industry observers are now speculating whether this latest report out of Bobai County will be used as a policy to curb pork shipping out from Guangxi Province.
Bobai County is one of the largest hog-producing counties in China. The county typically has stocks of 500,000 sows and produces 6.2 million head of hogs annually. In the U.S., such production would rank Bobai County behind only Iowa, North Carolina and Minnesota for hog production.
Since at least April, there have been questions about a possible outbreak in Bobai County because of hog fatalities, but there was no official confirmation of the outbreak in the county. Hog farms started selling their hogs as early as possible to reduce their risk. Many hog farms have already emptied their barns at a lower price. Those hogs had been shipped to other regions of the country.
“The situation is getting worse in South China,” said an industry expert who asked to remain anonymous. “Hog stocks in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces had left only less than half of the pig population.”
Guangdong and Guangxi are two provinces in southern China and export pork to other regions, include Hong Kong and Macao.
The Ministry of Agriculture said its sow herd in China is 22% smaller than at the same time last year, but many in the industry say this number could be more than 30%.
ASF does not harm humans, though it is deadly to pigs and there is no vaccine or cure yet.
Government officials have now started testing all pork stockpiles in China for possible contamination.
“Many companies and restaurants had stored frozen pork early this year when the price was low and also later on when farmers wanted to sell off pork as there was an outbreak of ASF. It is highly possible frozen pork in storage has been contaminated,” said the expert.
Surprisingly, pork prices in Beijing and Shanghai were not creeping higher because companies were selling the stockpile before the mandatory ASF testing.
Tang Ke, head of the Market and Economy Information Department of MOA, said last month that the price of pork had already shot up in March and could rise by as much as 70% year on year to record levels in the second half of this year.
Industry is expecting a pork shortage in China in the second half of the year. Imports will be the only help to China to fill the market demand for pork. Currently, USDA shows 122,000 metric tons of pork sales to China this year, with 72,800 metric tons already shipped. Canadian pork exports to Chin rose in value over the first three months of the year with a significant increase in March in variety meats such as offal. China also recently approved Argentina as an exporter as well.
In the U.S., the pork industry and USDA officials have ramped up efforts to keep ASF out of the country. USDA officials testified earlier this month that biosecurity and import controls have been increased, though they acknowledged ASF would be a difficult disease to control once it arrives in the country. The economic impact, especially from lost exports, would be devastating to the industry. USDA officials also indicated ASF is a difficult disease to find a vaccine for or decontaminate a farm once an outbreak occurs.
Over the past few weeks, ASF has spread in Asia with Vietnam reporting more than 2,500 outbreaks and 1.55 million diseased animals since early May, according to the latest report from the World Organization for Animal Health, known by its French acronym OIE.
African swine fever has become a greater focus for the OIE. The group announced that it was launching a global initiative with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to curb the spread of ASF. The OIE called on countries that are both infected and free of the disease to tighten biosecurity and traceability controls, as well as manage wild populations of hogs.
“Because of its complex epidemiology, it isn’t possible to control ASF without a coordinated response from the different sectors involved,” the OIE stated. (http://oiegeneralsession.com/en/african-swine-fever-the-oie-launches-a-global-initiative-to-control-the-disease/).

U.S. Railroads Could Get Squeezed By Tariffs On Mexican Imports

(Dow Jones) – Proposed U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports would impact billions of dollars of cargo moving across the border on railroads including Kansas City Southern and Union Pacific Corp.
Both companies have spent billions of dollars upgrading cross-border infrastructure in recent years to ferry Chevy Silverado pickups, Corona beer and Mexican avocados into the U.S. The railroad operators’ shares were among those under pressure from the tariff news on May 31, with Kansas City Southern trading down 6% and Union Pacific slipping 2%.
Kansas City Southern is closely tied to cross-border trade with Mexico. It operates a network of track called the “Nafta Railway” that can shuttle goods from Mexican factories and ocean ports to as far north as Memphis, Tenn., bypassing congested U.S. West Coast ports. It also carries Farm Belt commodities such as corn and U.S. natural gas south into Mexico.
Transportation analysts at Citi estimate that 30% of the railroad’s revenue is directly tied to moving goods across the border, and another 10% of transport business is handed off to another carrier before crossing countries.
About 40% of that traffic involving Mexico moves north, Citi estimates, with about a third intermodal shipments, a third automobiles and the remainder a mix of commodities.
Kansas City Southern has warned investors about the perils of trade tension with Mexico.
“Failure to preserve free trade provisions, or any other action imposing import duties or border taxes, could negatively impact KCS customers and the volume of rail shipments,” the company said in its latest annual report.
Union Pacific generated $2.5 billion last year in freight revenue from Mexico, nearly 12% of its overall freight revenue. Union Pacific is the only railroad that serves all six major rail gateways to Mexico.
About 90% of Union Pacific’s U.S.-bound shipments from Mexico fell into the categories of automotive, beer and beverage and intermodal containers. The railway doesn’t carry U.S. cargo south into Mexico, rather it interchanges at the border.
President Trump on May 30 said the U.S. would impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports beginning June 10 in response to the flow of migrants from Central America seeking asylum in the U.S. The tariff would grow steadily to 25% on Oct. 1 unless Mexico takes satisfactory action to halt the migrants.
The U.S. and Mexico transported about $53.2 billion in goods across their border in March, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, with $31.3 billion of that entering the U.S.
Trucks handle the vast majority of goods trade, including $44.3 billion worth of computers, automobiles and other goods moving through checkpoints such as Laredo and El Paso, Texas. Rail shipments accounted for $7.6 billion, or 14%, of the goods crossing the border in March, the U.S. government said.
Railroads worry that tariffs and other trade disputes could damp global trade volumes. The carriers were active in shaping the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the pending successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Representatives for Kansas City Southern and Union Pacific had no immediate comment.
At an investor conference in mid-May, Kansas City Southern’s finance chief, Michael Upchurch, said cross-border traffic with Mexico was growing and touted the company’s access to Mexico. He said it was unclear how the U.S. trade fight with China would affect rail volumes.
“There are some wild cards out there. The tariff issue and the temperature around that right now, which is heating up rather than cooling down, is a factor and that will clearly impact exactly what the volumes end up being,” he said.

2019 World Livestock Auctioneer Championship To Be Hosted In California

Kansas City, Mo. – Tulare Sales Yard, Tulare, Calif. will host the 2019 World Livestock Auctioneer Championship (WLAC) on June 7 and 8. The event is free and open to the general public. The 56th annual WLAC will take place in conjunction with the Livestock Marketing Association (LMA) Annual Convention.
The WLAC competition is composed of two parts: an interview and a live auction. The contest features 31 contestants who qualified from three WLAC Qualifying Events and the reigning International Auctioneer Champion.
During the live sale portion, contestants sell cattle to actual bidders in the seats. The judges score each contestant based on their presentation, chant, execution of sale and how likely they would hire the auctioneer.
“The auctioneer championship showcases the importance of the local livestock markets and the role the auctioneer plays in true-price discovery,” said Kristen Parman, LMA Vice President of Membership Services.
Additionally, because the WLAC semi-finalists are competing for such an important, high-profile role, they must establish their knowledge of the livestock marketing industry and demonstrate ability to express that knowledge with clarity in an interview competition.
Contestants who qualified to compete are Chuck Bradley, Rockford, Ala.; Neil Bouray, Webber, Kan.; Colton Brantley, Modesto, Calif.; Darren Carter, Ninety Six, S.C.; Dakota Davis, Caldwell, Kan.; Eric Drees, Nampa, Idaho; Dean Edge, Rimbey, Alberta; Will Epperly, Dunlap, Iowa; Brandon Frey, Creston, Iowa; Philip Gilstrap, Pendleton, S.C.; Steve Goedert, Dillion, Mont.; Shane Hatch, Kirtland, N.M.; Jim Hertzog, Butler, Mo.; Brennin Jack, Prince Alberta, Sask; Garrett Jones, Los Banos, Calif.; Ryan Konyenbelt, Ft. Macleod, Alberta; Lynn Langvardt, Chapman, Kan.; Wade Leist, Boyne City, Mich.; Jacob Massey, Petersburg, Tenn.; Justin Mebane, Bakersfield, Calif.; Jeremy Miller, Fairland, Okla.; Daniel Mitchell, Cumberland, Ohio; Christopher Pinard, Swainsboro, Ga.; Jay Romine, Mt. Washington, Ky.; Jim Settle, Arroyo Grande, Calif.; Russele Sleep, Bedford, Iowa; Dustin Smith, Jay, Okla.; Curtis Wetovick, Fullerton, Neb.; Tim Yoder, Montezuma, Ga.; Vernon Yoder, Dundee, Ohio and Zack Zumstein, Marsing, Idaho.
The 2019 WLAC host and Tulare Sales Yard owner, David Macedo, said “We are looking forward to hosting the event this year. It’s an exciting thing to be a part of. You’re going to see thirty-one of the most confident men in the world at what they do be a little nervous, and that’s kind of fun.”

Direct Receipts

Direct Receipts: 22,400

Texas 9100. 94 over 600 lbs. 42 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 Current FOB 650-700 lbs 147.00; 750-800 lbs 130.00-132.50; 800-850 lbs 126.50-133.25; 850-900 lbs 121.50-127.28; Current Del 550-600 lbs 162.50; 700-750 lbs 140.00; 800-850 lbs 140.00-142.00; Aug Del 600-650 lbs 150.53; 800-850 lbs 136.00; Sept Del 800-850 lbs 136.00; Oct Del 750-800 lbs 144.45. Medium and Large 1-2 Current FOB 650-700 lbs 143.22; 750-800 lbs 126.39-134.53; 800-850 lbs 123.36-128.11; 900-950 lbs 119.34; Current Del 650-700 lbs 139.85; 700-750 lbs 145.00; 800-850 lbs 129.50-132.00; June FOB 800-850 lbs 132.03. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 Current FOB 700-750 lbs 122.00-125.80; 750-800 lbs 117.00; 800-850 lbs 115.93; Current Del 700-750 lbs 124.00-130.00; 750-800 lbs 118.00-119.00; Aug FOB 700-750 lbs 125.70; 750-800 lbs 123.20; Sept FOB 650-700 lbs 134.52; Aug Del 700-750 lbs 131.12; Sept Del 700-750 lbs 132.85. Medium and Large 1-2 Current FOB 600-650 lbs 131.35; 650-700 lbs 126.11; 700-750 lbs 126.85; 850-900 lbs 112.34; Current Del 600-650 lbs 135.00; 700-750 lbs 126.75; 750-800 lbs 124.00; June FOB 650-700 lbs 126.99.

Oklahoma 1000. 100 over 600 lbs. 66 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 Current FOB 700-750 lbs 139.65-142.88. Medium and Large 1-2 Current FOB 700-750 lbs 138.63. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 Sept FOB 700-750 lbs 129.85. Medium and Large 1-2 Current FOB 750-800 lbs 113.71-117.00.

New Mexico 1100. 100 over 600 lbs. 59 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 Current FOB 800-850 lbs 139.54-139.83. Medium and Large 1-2 Current FOB 800-850 lbs 128.98. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 Current FOB 700-750 lbs 123.00-129.54; 750-800 lbs 116.50. Medium and Large 1-2 Current FOB 750-800 lbs 123.48.

Kansas 1700. 100 over 600 lbs. 11 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 Current Del 750-800 lbs 140.50; 900-950 lbs 121.65. Medium and Large 1-2 Current Del 600-650 lbs 159.00; 750-800 lbs 133.01-138.00; June Del 750-800 lbs 143.00. Heifers: Medium and Large 1-2 Current Del 700-750 lbs 130.00.

National Feeder Cattle Summary

St. Joseph, MO — May 31
National feeder cattle receipts: 91,200

Steers and heifers sold steady to $5 lower. Sharp gains in the corn and soybean markets have put a damper on feeder cattle gains even though May 24 Cattle on Feed report was viewed as somewhat bullish due to the tempered number of placements when compared to industry guesses. On May 30-31, the CME Feeder Cattle futures suffered sharp losses (many contracts $4 or more lower) with the front month August being $10.10 lower. September through January contracts were $9.22 to $9.85 lower for the week. Auction receipts were curtailed due to the Memorial Day holiday as well as widespread moisture throughout the Plains and Midwest. Reports of rainfall in the double-digit inches this week will do nothing but increase river levels. It will test those levees and dams in South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois. These states seem to not be able to catch a break this year; inundated with rainfall is not what hay producers need this time of year too. After the last two years of unseasonable cold weather into May, hay stocks have been depleted and hay farmers are ready to get to business as well. Fieldwork has come to a halt in many areas after they were able to get in the field for a short time. Corn planting progress is the slowest on record for this time of year and soybean acreage planted is reported to be the second slowest on record. With corn gaining up to 50 cents in a week and soybeans 60 to 75 cents higher, analysts are trying to figure out how many acres are going the prevented planting route or switching from corn to soybeans. Some in Kansas are moving to sorghum acres and still get credit for corn acreage. May 29 in the Southern Plains fed cattle prices were mostly steady at $115, with a few sales in Nebraska at $116 as packers have gone through inventory over the past couple of weeks and coming back from a Holiday shortened week need inventory. Boxed-beef prices are moving higher as beef was showcased in many ads over the Memorial Weekend Holiday. For the week, the Choice cutout closed $1.57 higher at $223.21, while Select was $0.78 lower at $207.69. Cattle Slaughter under federal inspection estimated at 582K for the week, 59K less than May 24 and 3K less than a year ago.

Texas 2700. 77 pct over 600 lbs. 44 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 400-450 lbs (419) 178.08; 500-550 lbs (526) 162.85; 550-600 lbs (569) 161.17; 600-650 lbs (618) 148.84; 650-700 lbs (686) 140.80; 750-800 lbs (785) 131.21; 800-850 lbs (830) 125.35; 950-1000 lbs (981) 118.30. Medium and Large 1-2 650-700 lbs (687) 135.02; 750-800 lbs (783) 129.21. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 500-550 lbs (529) 134.84; 550-600 lbs (564) 141.48. Medium and Large 1-2 750-800 lbs (765) 111.12.

Oklahoma 16,500. 80 pct over 600 lbs. 44 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 300-350 lbs (326) 186.78; 350-400 lbs (382) 188.46; 400-450 lbs (427) 171.46; 450-500 lbs (472) 170.85; 500-550 lbs (518) 159.18; 550-600 lbs (562) 154.93; 600-650 lbs (622) 153.15; 650-700 lbs (666) 143.06; 700-750 lbs (732) 140.69; 750-800 lbs (771) 135.08; 800-850 lbs (822) 134.26; 850-900 lbs (873) 124.12; 900-950 lbs (916) 124.03; 950-1000 lbs (982) 117.71; 1000-1050 lbs (1026) 113.66; load 1060 lbs 114.50; few loads 1102 lbs 110.75; pkg 1150 lbs 108.75; load 1214 lbs 111.25. Medium and Large 12 350-400 lbs (380) 163.88; 400-450 lbs (439) 166.69; 450-500 lbs (482) 157.36; 500-550 lbs (522) 154.26; 550-600 lbs (581) 150.31; 600-650 lbs (633) 143.60; 650-700 lbs (674) 141.10; 700-750 lbs (736) 137.59; 750-800 lbs (774) 131.73; 800-850 lbs (838) 123.14; 850-900 lbs (872) 124.02; 900-950 lbs (916) 120.77; 950-1000 lbs (957) 112.13. Dairy Steers: Large 3 pkg 516 lbs 45.00. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 300-350 lbs (331) 161.12; 350-400 lbs (378) 160.76; 400-450 lbs (422) 155.09; 450-500 lbs (461) 149.53; 500-550 lbs (522) 146.22; 550-600 lbs (564) 138.22; 600-650 lbs (630) 133.56; 650-700 lbs (677) 130.85; 700-750 lbs (731) 123.20; 750-800 lbs (776) 119.60; 800-850 lbs (821) 118.44; 850-900 lbs (865) 113.94; 900-950 lbs (910) 109.93; 950-1000 lbs (970) 109.51. Medium and Large 1-2 400-450 lbs (424) 144.04; 450-500 lbs (474) 138.55; 500-550 lbs (533) 136.79; 550-600 lbs (571) 134.18; 600-650 lbs (625) 125.87; 650-700 lbs (660) 125.74; 700-750 lbs (736) 119.32; 750-800 lbs (780) 120.35; 800-850 lbs (831) 116.71; 850-900 lbs (872) 111.29; 900-950 lbs (910) 111.54.

New Mexico 2500. 50 pct over 600 lbs. 40 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 300-350 lbs (337) 183.95; 400-450 lbs (420) 174.24; 450-500 lbs (478) 165.19; 500-550 lbs (519) 160.54; 550-600 lbs (564) 151.52; 600-650 lbs (622) 143.22; 650-700 lbs (678) 140.93; 700-750 lbs (710) 134.14; 750-800 lbs (772) 132.13. Medium and Large 1-2 250-300 lbs (276) 212.02; 400-450 lbs (419) 170.76; 450-500 lbs (485) 161.13; 500-550 lbs (520) 159.45; 600-650 lbs (623) 140.71; 650-700 lbs (670) 137.77; 750-800 lbs (774) 129.67; 800-850 lbs (821) 129.04; few loads 856 lbs 122.50. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 400-450 lbs (435) 149.78; 450-500 lbs (468) 145.54; 500-550 lbs (523) 139.43; 600-650 lbs (635) 125.41; 650-700 lbs (688) 122.84; 700-750 lbs (705) 120.21; load 861 lbs 111.50. Medium and Large 1-2 pkg 246 lbs 176.00; 500-550 lbs (516) 136.62; pkg 860 lbs 116.75.

Kansas 4200. 98 pct over 600 lbs. 52 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 650-700 lbs (675) 149.10; 700-750 lbs (738) 137.92; 750-800 lbs (779) 138.02; 800-850 lbs (835) 140.94; 850-900 lbs (868) 131.92; 900-950 lbs (928) 126.95; 950-1000 lbs (967) 118.76; 1000-1050 lbs (1021) 117.44; pkg 1062 lbs 116.00. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 600-650 lbs (623) 139.80; 650-700 lbs (675) 131.53; 700-750 lbs (734) 126.86; 750-800 lbs (779) 124.12; 800-850 lbs (819) 121.89; 850-900 lbs (871) 118.01; 900-950 lbs (937) 113.48; part load 951 lbs 113.10; part load 1007 lbs 112.60.

Missouri 12,900. 43 pct over 600 lbs. 41 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 350-400 lbs (374) 181.22; 400-450 lbs (425) 173.58; 450-500 lbs (475) 173.56; 500-550 lbs (523) 169.12; 550-600 lbs (571) 162.72; 600-650 lbs (619) 158.72; 650-700 lbs (669) 150.97; 700-750 lbs (728) 144.68; 750-800 lbs (769) 141.54; 800-850 lbs (827) 132.56; 850-900 lbs (890) 136.31; 900-950 lbs (910) 135.38. Medium and Large 12 300-350 lbs (322) 178.21; 350-400 lbs (381) 174.72; 400-450 lbs (429) 166.43; 450500 lbs (474) 165.72; 500-550 lbs (525) 154.53; 550-600 lbs (575) 154.40; 600-650 lbs (621) 148.56; 650-700 lbs (670) 143.14; 700-750 lbs (726) 139.67; 750-800 lbs (780) 128.19; 800-850 lbs (835) 128.72; 850-900 lbs (876) 123.34; 900-950 lbs (927) 120.82. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 300-350 lbs (334) 157.69; 350-400 lbs (377) 156.30; 400-450 lbs (426) 152.06; 450-500 lbs (475) 147.34; 500-550 lbs (523) 143.02; 550-600 lbs (571) 142.49; 600-650 lbs (618) 136.14; 650-700 lbs (668) 135.63; 700-750 lbs (724) 133.53; 750-800 lbs (765) 122.86; 800-850 lbs (828) 121.00; part load 899 lbs 117.50. Medium and Large 1-2 300-350 lbs (337) 148.41; 350-400 lbs (370) 144.23; 400-450 lbs (422) 144.38; 450-500 lbs (475) 139.35; 500-550 lbs (526) 135.47; 550-600 lbs (573) 130.17; 600-650 lbs (624) 127.20; 650-700 lbs (666) 123.47; 700-750 lbs (725) 124.24; 750-800 lbs (781) 119.00.

Arkansas 3200. 17 pct over 600 lbs. 47 pct heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 350-400 lbs (375) 173.67; 400-450 lbs (424) 161.33; 450-500 lbs (470) 157.77; 500-550 lbs (519) 151.18; 550-600 lbs (572) 145.83; 600-650 lbs (614) 139.81. Medium and Large 1-2 500-550 lbs (531) 152.32. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 350-400 lbs (361) 148.47; 400-450 lbs (425) 139.66; 450-500 lbs (473) 136.05; 500-550 lbs (522) 133.39; 550-600 lbs (566) 128.70; 600-650 lbs (617) 125.67. Medium and Large 12 450-500 lbs (454) 142.36.

 

 

 

 

 

logo
Friday, June 7, 2019 10:46 AM